聚焦亚太商业战略与宏观经济的长周期研究机构A long-cycle research institution focused on Asia-Pacific business strategy and macroeconomics
商业创新与经济发展联盟（Alliance for Business Innovation and Economic Development，简称ABIED）是一家于2017年5月在香港依法登记成立的非营利国际研究机构。我们成立的初衷朴素得几乎不像一家机构的"使命"——希望商业与经济领域，多一个愿意以十年为尺度去做研究的地方。The Alliance for Business Innovation and Economic Development (ABIED) is a non-profit international research institution legally registered in Hong Kong in May 2017. Its founding purpose was intentionally plain: to create a place in business and economics that is willing to study questions on a ten-year scale.
过去十年，亚太商业环境经历了前所未有的结构性变化。资本流向更复杂、产业周期更短、治理边界更模糊、不确定性更难以提前定价。越是在这样的环境里，越需要有人愿意坐下来、读数据、做访谈、写长报告，并且愿意把判断留在纸上、接受未来五年、十年的回望与检验。ABIED希望成为这样一个地方。Over the past decade, the Asia-Pacific business environment has undergone profound structural change. Capital flows have become more complex, industry cycles shorter, governance boundaries less clear, and uncertainty harder to price in advance. In this environment, ABIED exists for the slow work: reading data, conducting interviews, writing long reports, and leaving judgments on record for five- and ten-year review.
ABIED 的全部工作围绕四件事展开：第一，维护一个以长期主义为共识的会员网络，让企业决策者、研究者与一线从业者能在一个共同的讨论场里交换判断；第二，评选与颁发商业战略与经济洞察奖（BSEIA），把本年度真正值得被记下来的研究与实践挑出来；第三，运营研究与咨询委员会（ICRC），以课题为抓手持续产出长周期研究成果；第四，面向会员单位与公共机构提供独立的战略咨询与诊断服务，收入全部回流至公益课题池。ABIED's work revolves around four commitments: maintaining a membership network grounded in long-termism; presenting the Business Strategy & Economic Insight Award (BSEIA) to recognize research and practice worth recording each year; operating the Research and Consulting Committee (ICRC) as the core of long-cycle research; and providing independent strategic advisory services whose net income returns to the public-interest research pool.
我们不做短期市场预测，不发每日观点推送，也不做热点跟风评论。我们相信，商业与经济研究最稀缺的从来不是"快"，而是"经得起翻第二遍"。因此我们把几乎所有资源都投向那些耗时较长、需要现场访谈、需要长期追踪、需要跨学科协作的课题上。We do not issue short-term market forecasts, daily opinions, or trend-chasing commentary. In business and economic research, the scarce quality is not speed, but work that remains worth reading a second time. That is why ABIED directs its resources toward projects requiring field interviews, long-term tracking, and cross-disciplinary collaboration.
任何重要判断都需要被时间检验。我们要求所有旗舰课题的观察周期不少于十二个月，大部分追踪性课题设定为三至五年。Important judgments must be tested by time. Every flagship project observes at least twelve months of evidence, with many tracking projects designed for three to five years.
我们拒绝纯桌面研究，也拒绝"感觉派"。每一份旗舰报告都必须同时包含可复现的量化证据与足够深的实地访谈记录。We reject purely desk-based research and intuition-only conclusions. Each flagship report must combine reproducible quantitative evidence with deep field interviews.
所有课题的立项、评审与结题全部由 ICRC 独立完成。捐赠方、赞助方、合作企业均不得干预研究判断。All project approval, review, and completion decisions are made independently by ICRC. Donors, sponsors, and partners may not interfere with research judgment.
我们公开所有已结题课题的主要判断与关键变量。五年后请随时回来，检验当年的判断有没有经受住时间。We publish the main judgments and key variables of completed projects so they can be reviewed years later against time and evidence.